Is NHL Parity at Risk? The League's Playoff Landscape Is Shifting

Author:

Olivia Phillips

|Published: September 17th, 2024

Is the NHL increasingly dividing into "haves and have-nots"?

This is a question that looms large as we approach the upcoming season, challenging the long-held belief that the league is defined by parity.

The NHL has long marketed its competitive balance as a key differentiator compared to other North American sports leagues, but recent trends suggest that this dynamic may be shifting.

A combination of factors, including a hard salary cap, a low-scoring game structure, and a playoff format that admits half the teams in the league, traditionally made year-over-year change commonplace in the NHL.

However, recent developments are slowly eroding that balance.

Two key changes:

The NHL's playoff reformatting in 2013-14
A surge in offensive output across the league

These have reduced volatility and made playoff outcomes more predictable.

A closer look at the past decade of playoff data reveals a striking trend:

If a team misses the playoffs one year, the likelihood of missing again the next is relatively high

In fact, the 2022-23 season saw 13 of 16 teams from the previous year return to the playoffs, underscoring this newfound consistency

In the East, the New Jersey Devils replaced the Washington Capitals, while in the West, the Nashville Predators and Vancouver Canucks stepped in for the Minnesota Wild and Seattle Kraken

This phenomenon raises questions about what the future holds for teams striving to break into the playoff picture.

According to betting markets, the Minnesota Wild are the team most likely to return to the playoffs after missing out last season, but other teams could surprise.

Who will break into the top 16 this season, and which current contenders might lose their spot?

Later this week, we will delve deeper into which teams are best poised to reclaim their playoff status and which might be at risk of being bumped out.

Until then, enjoy the calm before the storm—hockey season is fast approaching.